Is There an Autism Epidemic? A Behavior Analyst's Perspective
- Ashleigh
- Apr 16
- 6 min read
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) just published an update on the prevalence of autism spectrum disorder (ASD). The prevalence of autism is now 1 in 31 (3.2% of the population). U.S. Health and Human Services (HHS) Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr has garnered widespread attention for referring to this increased prevalence as an epidemic, stating, "The autism epidemic is running rampant" (U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, 2025). But what constitutes an epidemic, and what impact does referring to autism as an epidemic have on the neurodivergent community? Let's explore.
Rising Rates of Autism Spectrum Disorder (ASD)
The CDC has published U.S. autism prevalence data over the last few decades. At a glance, it is clear that the rates of autism diagnoses are increasing. In the year 2000, only 1 in 150 children (0.67%) were diagnosed with autism. Over the years, this figure has steadily risen, with the current prevalence at 1 in 31 children being diagnosed with autism. To put this into perspective, the average 3rd grade classroom will have 0-1 autistic students.
Surveillance Year | Prevalence of Autism |
2022 (most recent) | 1 in 31 |
2020 | 1 in 36 |
2018 | 1 in 44 |
2016 | 1 in 54 |
2014 | 1 in 59 |
2012 | 1 in 69 |
2010 | 1 in 68 |
2008 | 1 in 88 |
2006 | 1 in 110 |
2004 | 1 in 125 |
2002 | 1 in 150 |
2000 | 1 in 150 |
What Constitutes an Epidemic?
In evaluating whether these rising numbers constitute an autism epidemic, let's consider what an epidemic is. According to the CDC, "an epidemic refers to an increase, often sudden, in the number of cases of a disease above what is normally expected in that population in that area."
So, let's break that down. First, autism isn't a disease—it's a neurodevelopmental condition. However, an epidemic can sometimes be applied to other public health concerns. Nonetheless, the use of the term epidemic as it relates to autism is misleading. Next, is autism increasing suddenly above what would normally be expected? Some might argue that autism rates are rising above what they might call normal, but from a professional standpoint, when you take a step back and analyze the whole picture, it's easy to see why the increased rates of autism would not constitute an epidemic.
Why Autism is NOT an Epidemic
The increasing rates of autism spectrum disorder do not represent an autism epidemic, as some have suggested. Several factors have impacted the growing rates of ASD. Let's cover a few of the most prominent.
Changes in Diagnostic Criteria
The evolving understanding of autism as a diagnosis is a major contributing factor to increases in diagnoses. What was once conceptualized as a form of childhood schizophrenia has evolved into a recognition of a neurodevelopmental condition with a spectrum of traits.
In 2013, a 5th version of the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders (DSM) was released. In the DSM-5, diagnostic criteria for autism were expanded. This included the elimination of multiple other conditions, including Asperger's Disorder. Instead, a single diagnosis of autism spectrum disorder was created. Broadening the definition of autism allowed a more inclusive range of traits that would qualify one for an ASD diagnosis. As a result, many children who wouldn't have qualified for an autism diagnosis in previous versions of the DSM now do.
Improved Screening
Autism and developmental screenings are now standard at child well visits. It wasn't until 2007 that the AAP began recommending routine screenings for autism (Johnson et al., 2007). As more pediatricians adopted these practices, children, especially those with lower support needs, are more likely to be flagged as at risk, leading to earlier diagnostic evaluations and access to support.
Improved Awareness
Greater awareness and understanding of autism have resulted in an enhanced ability for medical professionals to identify and diagnose autism. When looking at the rates of autism in adults, it becomes clear that improved awareness and diagnostic capabilities are more likely factors of the increasing prevalence than the idea that autism itself is becoming more common.
A 2024 study found the rate of autism diagnoses in adults aged 26-34 to have spiked 450% between 2011 and 2022! Given this data, it is highly likely that many adults were undiagnosed throughout their childhood. As medical professionals and the general public have gained awareness of ASD, those who went undiagnosed are now able to receive diagnoses.
Increased Access to Care & Community Inclusion
You may have heard someone say (or perhaps even thought it yourself), "When I was a kid, I never knew anyone who was autistic." This line of thinking relies on a leap in logic—assuming that because they didn’t know any autistic individuals, they must not have existed. This is a form of anecdotal reasoning where personal experience is mistakenly used as evidence for a broader reality.
Rather than the idea that autistic people didn't exist a few decades ago, it's more likely that many were either undiagnosed or misdiagnosed as children.
Additionally, in previous generations, autistic individuals were more likely to be institutionalized or otherwise segregated from the general public. Increased community inclusion due to better access to care and promotion of acceptance has made it more common to see autistic children attending public schools and out in the community.
What the Rising Rates of Autism Really Tell Us
All this to say—calling autism an epidemic is misleading at best. It's irresponsible for someone in a position of power overseeing the Department of Health and Human Services to regurgitate unfounded claims lacking a scientific basis. A more accurate way to understand these rising numbers is through the lens of improvements in detection, awareness, and acceptance.
Rising reports of autism prevalence do not mean there are more autistic people than ever before. Rather, it means we're getting better at identifying autism in the people who have always been around.
The Impact of Referring to Autism as an Epidemic
In recent weeks, there have been numerous comments referencing autism as an epidemic. The claims made are not only lacking a scientific basis, they're also incredibly insulting to the autistic community. In a news briefing, a few of the comments RFK made include:
"Most cases now are severe."
"This is catastrophic for our country."
"Autism destroys families."
"These are kids who will never pay taxes. They'll never hold a job. They'll never play baseball. They'll never write a poem. They'll never go on a date."
Statements like these are not only factually incorrect; they are deeply dehumanizing. "Autism destroys families"—what a harmful claim, suggesting autistic individuals are burdens rather than unique individuals with diverse strengths. And worst of all, the statement on how autistic people will never pay taxes, hold a job, play baseball, write a poem, or go on a date. This rhetoric reinforces the outdated notion that autistic people are incapable of leading fulfilling lives. Autism exists on a wide spectrum, with many people thriving in careers, relationships, and creative pursuits. These claims can fuel stigma, discourage early identification, and perhaps worst yet, they tell autistic people that their lives are less valuable. The value of a human life is not measured by whether they can pay taxes.
Autism is not a disease. Autistic people don't need to be prevented or cured. What they need is acceptance—genuine acceptance of who they are—and support in navigating a society that often isn't built with their needs in mind.
As the neurodiversity movement has progressed in recent years, it's disheartening to see these ideas begin to resurface, especially on a federal level. We must move away from this kind of language and instead foster a narrative that values neurodiversity and highlights the holistic humanity of autistic people.
FAQs
Is autism an epidemic?
No, despite the increasing prevalence of autism spectrum disorder, there is insufficient evidence to support the idea that the actual incidence of autism is increasing.
Why are rates of autism increasing?
Is autism a disease?
What are the signs of autism?
What is the current prevalence of autism?
References:
American Psychiatric Association. (2013). Diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders (5th ed.). https://doi.org/10.1176/appi.books.9780890425596
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2024, May 16). Data and statistics on autism spectrum disorder. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. https://www.cdc.gov/autism/data-research/index.html
Grosvenor, L. P., Croen, L. A., Lynch, F. L., et al. (2024). Autism diagnosis among US children and adults, 2011–2022. JAMA Network Open, 7(10), e2442218. https://doi.org/10.1001/jamanetworkopen.2024.42218
Johnson, C. P., Myers, S. M., & Council on Children With Disabilities. (2007). Identification and evaluation of children with autism spectrum disorders. Pediatrics, 120(5), 1183–1215. https://doi.org/10.1542/peds.2007-2361
Shaw, K. A., Williams, S., Patrick, M. E., Valencia-Prado, M., Durkin, M. S., Howerton, E. M., ... & Maenner, M. J. (2025). Prevalence and early identification of autism spectrum disorder among children aged 4 and 8 years—Autism and Developmental Disabilities Monitoring Network, 16 sites, United States, 2022. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report. Surveillance Summaries, 74(2), 1–22. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/74/ss/ss7402a1.htm
U.S. Department of Health and Human Services. (2025, April 15). ‘Autism epidemic runs rampant,’ new data shows 1 in 31 children afflicted. https://www.hhs.gov/press-room/autism-epidemic-runs-rampant-new-data-shows-grants.html
